Originally published on September 28, 2009 in our free SmallLaw newsletter.
On January 1st, I donned my Rosstradamus hat and robes, gazed into my crystal ball, and published 30+ legal technology predictions with a bent towards the solo and small firm world in which I spend much of my professional time. How have my prognostications played out after nearly nine months? Let's take a look at ten of them.
1. At Least 10% of the Amlaw 100 Law Firms Will Fold By The End of 2009
Fortunately for large firms, my prediction was somewhat overstated. Four significant firms failed: Thelen, Heller, Wolf & Thatcher, not the ten that I had predicted. However, the large firm landscape has clearly shifted, perhaps permanently (see #2 below). More than a few larger firms have delayed the start dates of new associates or announced moratoriums on new hiring. While all is not that well, I'm glad most of these firms avoided an apocalypse.
2. The Rise of BigSolos
I've received flack for coining this term, but I'm not sure what else to call them — emigrants, escapees, laid off, downsized lawyers from megafirms who decide to go the solo or small firm route.
My prediction was right on the money. More and more BigSolos continue to stake out their self-shingled territory. I'm working with several, helping them make the transition from mega-office to being on their own.
3. Software as a Service Makes Serious Inroads
Again, I was correct — just look at the continually growing success of SaaS practice management systems such as Clio and Rocket Matter, as well as billing management like Bill4Time and Web-based eDiscovery products. Expect the SaaS market to heat up, especially for smaller and more frugal firms throughout the next several years to come.
4. Twittering Will Eclipse Blawging for Small Firm Marketing
Whether it's Twitter, Facebook, or LinkedIn, social media use for business development has exploded. Who would have expected blawging to feel almost passe in comparison?
5. Windows Vista Will Quietly Disappear From the Scene
Windows 7 will be released in October. No one will mourn the death of Vista. It deserves to die.
6. Netbooks Will Replace Ultralight Laptops in Small Firms
Netbooks have indeed virtually destroyed the pricey ultralight laptop marketplace. I see more and more small firm lawyers using netbooks with port replicators as desktop replacements. Running 3-4 major apps with 2 GB of RAM seems to work surprisingly well — and the pricing is spot on for these troubled economic times.
7. Practice Management Systems Move Past 10-20% Adoption
This was more a hope than prediction. There is definitely a renaissance period underway for all practice management systems, whether newer generation SaaS tools (see #3 above), or more traditional locally installed systems (especially STI's PracticeMaster as it continues its Tabs3-fueled rise in market share and reputation). More small law firms than ever now see the light, acknowledging that not having a practice management system is tantamount to … well, insanity.
8. More Firms Will Get a Clue About Data Backup and Learn That Online Backup Alone Is Not Adequate
Sadly, I think we've made little progress in this regard. Online backup systems have matured, not in a necessarily positive way. Maturity can mean outsourcing of tech support offshore, creating nightmarish situations in which backups don't work reliably, and worse, restores don't occur. My revised prediction — backups will come full circle to local, full system backups but with smarter devices that simultaneously replicate and mirror data offsite.
9. Virtual Law Practice Will Rise in Popularity, Especially Among Solos
I couldn't have been more accurate as more and more small firm lawyers share office space, take advantage of executive suites offered by Regus and others, or set up a home office. It's all about cutting costs to maintain, or ideally, maximize profits. Expect more of the same for small firms that often just don't have any real need for traditional office space.
10. Interest in CLE on Legal Technology Will Increase
Speaking from my own experience, I see larger and larger turnouts at practice management and legal technology-oriented CLE programs. Polling of attendees shows, admittedly anecdotally, that the majority of audience members work in firms with fewer than 20 lawyers.
It seems that small firm lawyers are taking the time to bone up on smarter ways to run their practices, as opposed to just cramming on substantive CLE. Most attendees seem driven by a desire to minimize non-billable administrative time, and maximize billable/salable time.
Not Too Shabby
Overall, my nine month old predictions fared well. Let's hope for continued progress among all solos and small law firms as we head into 2010.
Written by Ross Kodner of MicroLaw.
How to Receive SmallLaw
Small firm, big dreams. Published first via email newsletter and later here on our blog, SmallLaw provides you with a mix of practical advice that you can use today, and insight about what it will take for small law firms like yours to thrive in the future. The SmallLaw newsletter is free so don't miss the next issue. Please subscribe now.
